Bitcoin and most altcoins have remained in a narrow range this month as trade and interest rate risks persist.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck at $108,000, while altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) have moved sideways. Here are the top four reasons why a crypto bull run may still happen this year.
Bitcoin price is on the cusp of a breakout
Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is poised for a bullish breakout. The asset has formed a bullish flag pattern, characterized by a vertical pole followed by a descending channel.
This flag formation overlaps with the handle section of a broader cup-and-handle pattern. The cup has a depth of roughly 30%, projecting a potential target above $140,000.
Similarly, the flagpole measures approximately 35%. Projecting that distance from the breakout level at $109,300 points to a target exceeding $145,000. A strong move above this level could spark a broader crypto rally.
Altcoins have formed bullish reversal patterns
Most altcoins have developed the well-known bullish double-bottom reversal pattern. This formation emerged after a drop in April, a rebound in May, and a subsequent retest of April’s lows.
Additionally, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, altcoins have also formed a bullish falling wedge pattern, defined by two downward-sloping, converging trendlines.
The upper trendline has tested swing highs since February 1, while the lower line tracks lows since February 7. The price has since broken above the wedge’s upper boundary, signaling further gains, potentially toward the May high of $0.348.
Potential trade deals
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the U.S. could finalize several trade agreements by the end of the month. It has already reached deals with China, Vietnam, and the U.K., and preparations are underway for an agreement with the European Union.
The main headline this week was a series of letters former President Trump sent to various countries, reaffirming that he won’t shift the August 1 deadline.
However, much like with previous China negotiations, the letters are seen as a pressure tactic to accelerate deals. A broader trade agreement would likely boost both equity and crypto markets.
Interest rate cuts
An additional catalyst for a crypto bull run is the expectation of upcoming interest rate cuts. Economists anticipate the Federal Reserve could begin easing as early as its September meeting, provided inflation data continues to improve.
Polymarket odds of a September rate cut stand at 50% and odds of a two-interest rate cuts have risen in the past few weeks.
Interest rate cuts trigger a crypto bull run by pushing investors from the bond market to the market. On top of this, the Big Beautiful Bill will increase the amount of money in circulation, some of which will end in the crypto market.
